Understand and Plan for Extreme Weather Events

Worldwide, governments, state and local agencies and NGOs struggle to keep pace with increases in the frequency, volume and impact of extreme weather events. These events rank first on the list of threats forecast to pose a critical risk to the world in 2024 and in the next decade, according to the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) 2024 Global Risks Report. 

This new reality has placed a spotlight on government organizations and the ways in which they help the communities they serve prepare for, respond to and recover from extreme weather events. Here we’ll explore how different types of events have different lead times—long, short and little to none—and how those differences affect preparedness measures and what to consider when mitigating potential effects.

Storms and hurricanes: Events with long lead times

In the U.S., powerful storms and hurricanes over the past two decades have shown public sector organizations and agencies just how critical it is to identify and plan for the potential risks extreme weather events pose to affected communities, especially vulnerable populations.

Most recently, Hurricane Helene caused heavy flooding across six U.S. Southeastern states in September 2024, leading to nearly 200 deaths, millions without power and widespread destruction. The death toll is expected to increase as hundreds of people are still unaccounted for. Helene is the second-deadliest hurricane to strike the U.S. mainland this century.

The good news is that these types of weather events—including winter storms, blizzards and heat waves—have longer lead times than other disasters, giving government agencies the advance notice needed to mitigate risks for both their organization and the communities they serve.

Prepare for vulnerabilities

What we now know is that when preparing for extreme weather events with long lead times, agencies must consider how the events intersect with the underlying vulnerabilities of the populations served. This is because such events have disparate impacts on vulnerable populations—both during and after they occur.

As we’ve learned from hurricanes and typhoons, more fatalities and injuries often occur in the days after a weather event. Much of this is due to after-disaster ripple effects, such as food scarcity and power outages, that begin to propagate and accelerate.

Ideally, preparedness for such situations is already a key part of your emergency response plans. But don’t assume what you have is sufficient. As soon as the first warnings come in, review your response plans to ensure they can withstand the next extreme weather occurrence.

Build public-private partnerships

When public and private sector organizations work together on disaster preparedness, they can help communities become more resilient by providing vital services and access to essential resources. The key is to identify the areas in which the private sector’s assistance is most needed before and after an extreme weather event.

Will you need help clearing roads quickly? Should pharmacies ready themselves for an influx of people in need of medication? Is there shelter for evacuees? In the state of Texas, the City of Austin Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management has successfully partnered with a grocery store chain to help ensure access to food in the event of a disaster.

Ideally, those in the private and public sector will have access to the same critical breaking news to avoid any discrepancies or gaps in information. The key is to establish these partnerships ahead of time and be open to new ways of collaborating.

Floods and wildfires: Events with short lead times

While floods are a common and often immediate aftereffect of hurricanes and severe thunderstorms, they don’t come with as much advance notice. For instance, hurricane forecasts span anywhere from a few days to a week. But warnings for flash floods are typically issued six hours beforehand. This leaves little time for government agencies to prepare. 

Another climate hazard with short lead times is wildfires. Exacerbated by extreme heat, wildfires have been recurring with increased scale and impact over the past few years.

According to the United Nations, uncontrollable wildfires are projected to increase globally by 14 percent by 2030, 30 percent by 2050 and 50 percent by the end of the century. They can damage and/or significantly disrupt critical public infrastructure, such as transportation and water management facilities.

Wildfires have negative effects on access to food and water and displacement, which impacts the shelter system and leads to other health risks that emerge from the [impacted] shelter system.”

— Andrew Schroeder, Direct Relief Vice President of Research & Analysis

These short lead times are challenging to manage and prepare for. But the challenge is one that must be tackled head on as the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events continue to increase. This requires government agencies to know what’s happening in and around the communities they serve—and they need to know as soon as weather events occur. And, maintain real-time visibility as events unfold over minutes, days and weeks.

For example, First Alert, Dataminr’s product for the public sector, alerts on breaking news in real time, enabling the fastest response—from deploying first responders to issuing critical public updates. The result is a safer, more informed community.

Being able to communicate with the public and key constituents in real time, throughout the duration of fires is also vital. “Access to real-time information helps prevent any delayed response or misguided reactions, and enables timely coordinated emergency responses,” said Brant Arnold-Smith, Metro Vancouver Program Manager, Security & Emergency Management.

Reminders for effective communication

• Set up lines of communication ahead of time to better service communities
• Establish a 24-hour warning point and emergency operations center
• Ensure there is a communications plan in place to keep elected officials informed of your progress
• Implement different ways—no fewer than two—to both receive weather warnings and alert the public
• Leverage real-time breaking news alerts to identify and address infrastructure issues and local service disruptions more quickly and strategically

Tornadoes: Events with little to no lead time

Some types of extreme weather events have very little lead time. Take tornadoes for instance. The U.S. National Weather Service aims to provide warnings that are 13 minutes ahead of when tornadoes hit, but on average, provides nine minutes of lead time. Once a tornado touches, it can last from a few seconds to approximately three hours.

These events pose additional preparedness challenges, such as ensuring the dissemination of accurate and reliable information. Rumors can cause unnecessary panic and instances of misinformation can erode the public’s trust in government.

During these times, make it a priority to share updates on new developments via social media channels and news outlets in a timely manner. Combat misinformation by obtaining valid information from official sources and then communicate that information via your official social channels. This helps to ensure affected parties remain informed.

As planning is minimal when there is a sudden onset of an extreme weather event, it’s important to prioritize your responses based on the potential impacts the event might have on communities. Emergency responders often face coordination pressures around being able to provide different types of assistance, including water, food, shelter and medicine.

For a more coordinated response:

• Leverage breaking news alerts on weather events to gain a clear and precise picture of relief efforts and distribution of resources
• Understand what the gaps are for those in relief efforts and how quickly they can be filled
• Know how the populations you serve are both digitally connected and not connected
• Look for opportunities to collaborate across your own, as well as other agencies

The imperative is to immediately send a warning message that a weather incident has or is about to occur and clearly communicate what actions the public should take to protect themselves, their families and property. Just as important is communicating additional actions they need to take to remain safe and recover more quickly.

Extreme weather events can cause enormous damage to the environment, property, wildlife and human health. Management of activities before, during and after an event is a difficult task. By understanding how weather incidents differ in lead times and impact, you can design more effective recovery plans while keeping the communities you serve informed and prepared.